The overall Brier score of our sales-forecast probabilities is 0.1091, indicating moderate accuracy (lower is better, with 0 being a perfect score). The accompanying reliability diagram plots predicted probabilities against observed win rates by decile:

- Points close to the diagonal line indicate well-calibrated forecasts.
- Deviations above or below the diagonal highlight over- or under-confidence in specific probability ranges.

Refer to the “reliability_diagram” visualization to assess where our forecasts are most or least calibrated.